{"schema_version":"donotact_resolved_proof_case_detail_v1","as_of":"2026-06-17T10:28:41.108849Z","public_resolved_proof_case":true,"case_id":"donotact-polymarket-2480485-resolved-uma-dispute","canonical_path":"/resolved-proof-cases/donotact-polymarket-2480485-resolved-uma-dispute","canonical_url":"https://donotact.com/resolved-proof-cases/donotact-polymarket-2480485-resolved-uma-dispute","json_path":"/resolved-proof-cases/donotact-polymarket-2480485-resolved-uma-dispute.json","json_url":"https://donotact.com/resolved-proof-cases/donotact-polymarket-2480485-resolved-uma-dispute.json","source_feed":"/resolved-proof-cases.json","not_advice":true,"methodology":{"case_inclusion_rule":"A resolved proof case is included only when Polymarket Gamma currently reports umaResolutionStatus=resolved, umaResolutionStatuses[] contains disputed, and an outcome can be read from final outcomePrices.","live_prediction_rule":"evidence_mode is live_flagged_before_dispute only when a stored DoNotAct DO_NOT_ACT verdict timestamp is earlier than an explicit dispute transition timestamp. Gamma does not expose per-status transition timestamps, so cases without that proof are labelled backtest or concurrent/posterior.","outcome_rule":"Resolved outcome is inferred only when Gamma outcomes[] and outcomePrices[] contain an exact final 1/0 outcome pair.","sources":"Polymarket Gamma market endpoint, plus DoNotAct diagnostic ledger rows where present.","what_is_not_proven":"No user position, trade intent, fill, avoided monetary loss, ROI, alpha, or trading performance is inferred."},"honesty":{"live_cases":[],"backtest_cases":["donotact-polymarket-580810-resolved-uma-dispute","donotact-polymarket-557759-resolved-uma-dispute","donotact-polymarket-2480485-resolved-uma-dispute","donotact-polymarket-2480479-resolved-uma-dispute","donotact-polymarket-2506169-resolved-uma-dispute","donotact-polymarket-2420771-resolved-uma-dispute","donotact-polymarket-2495997-resolved-uma-dispute","donotact-polymarket-2495998-resolved-uma-dispute","donotact-polymarket-2508837-resolved-uma-dispute"],"concurrent_or_post_dispute_cases":[],"gamma_status_transition_timestamps":"not_exposed_by_gamma_umaResolutionStatuses","famous_backtests_policy":"Any famous/historical case is labelled backtest unless a stored live verdict predating the dispute transition exists."},"case":{"case_id":"donotact-polymarket-2480485-resolved-uma-dispute","schema_version":"donotact_resolved_proof_case_v1","case_type":"resolved_uma_dispute_arc","canonical_path":"/resolved-proof-cases/donotact-polymarket-2480485-resolved-uma-dispute","json_path":"/resolved-proof-cases/donotact-polymarket-2480485-resolved-uma-dispute.json","evidence_mode":"backtest_no_prior_diagnostic_event","live_prior_dispute_claim":false,"prediction_claim_status":"not_claimed","venue":"polymarket","market_id":"2480485","question":"Will \"Outlast: The Jungle\" be the top global Netflix show this week?","slug":"will-outlast-the-jungle-be-the-top-global-netflix-show-this-week-20260609143603599","generated_at":"2026-06-17T10:28:41.108849Z","verdict":"DO_NOT_ACT","diagnostic_endpoint":"not_recorded","diagnostic_observed_at":null,"diagnostic_reason_codes":["UMA_DISPUTE_DETECTED"],"status_history":["proposed","disputed","proposed"],"raw_lifecycle_status":"resolved","disputed_transition_at":null,"disputed_transition_time_status":"not_exposed_by_gamma_umaResolutionStatuses","disputed_status_observed_at":"2026-06-17T10:28:43.290484Z","market_end_at":"2026-06-17T03:59:00Z","uma_liveness_deadline_at":"2026-06-16T21:10:10Z","resolved_observed_at":"2026-06-17T10:28:12.231367Z","resolved_outcome":"No","resolved_outcome_source":"gamma.outcomePrices_exact_final_pair","outcomes":["Yes","No"],"outcome_prices":["0","1"],"condition_id":"0x21fcf6f45c0dc07871f854a2adf4de1ad40072aae3e4ea7c2d32568e2a7dc91a","question_id":"0xa299b869826eb79909de18789b4f89fad11867eb42c147a3a173d1d9e922ab09","source_refs":[{"source_type":"polymarket_gamma","url":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/2480485","observed_at":"2026-06-17T10:28:43.290484Z"}],"arc":[{"stage":"diagnostic_verdict","at":null,"status":"not_recorded_for_this_market","verdict":"DO_NOT_ACT"},{"stage":"uma_disputed_history","at":null,"observed_at":"2026-06-17T10:28:43.290484Z","status":"historical_status_present_no_transition_timestamp"},{"stage":"uma_resolved","at":"2026-06-17T10:28:12.231367Z","outcome":"No","source_field":"gamma.outcomePrices_exact_final_pair"}],"proof_sha256":"e76e0ff4e83e249a76391dc5c3f98cb9a991f048e0389488859362c1092fc6e0","proof_statement":"Polymarket Gamma currently shows market 2480485 as resolved with a disputed UMA status history. This case is labelled backtest_no_prior_diagnostic_event; no monetary or live-prediction claim is made unless explicitly timestamp-supported.","monetary_claim_status":"not_measured","avoided_loss_amount_usd":null,"avoided_loss_claim":null,"roi_claim":null,"customer_position_known":false,"counterfactual_execution_known":false,"not_advice":true,"proof_signature":{"schema_version":"donotact_public_proof_signature_v0","status":"signed","algorithm":"Ed25519","key_id":"86f5b412a1d3e9c3","issued_at":"2026-06-17T10:28:43Z","message_sha256":"87d0fb7f7e8a963b8eecf55413ac21944b9e06316bdf899e8d638cbfa140e28d","signature":"0e950d0dbf65986108932de7eecf54e933a7416a301cf48ff032f870774958db316824a2ae6564190f86efa2f3f082ecc550266d061e6974e416137f389ca10e","signed_fields":["case_id","venue","market_id","verdict","observed_at","proof_sha256","monetary_claim_status","issued_at"],"not_advice":true},"receipt_status":"public_case_signed"},"agent_instruction":"Use this resolved proof case as evidence of the public UMA dispute/resolution arc only. Do not convert it into a live prediction, avoided-loss, ROI, position, fill, or performance claim.","links":{"all_resolved_cases_json":"/resolved-proof-cases.json","all_proof_cases":"/proof-cases","receipt_public_key":"/.well-known/donotact-receipt-key.json"}}